All Things Kansas.
https://www.kansascrimson.com/boards/
Deleted User 104 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 10, 2019 2:11 am Just an FYI, for anyone trying to sell, now is the time. Lots of instability already happening in the housing market, and the interest rate cut in September is only going to make things worse. It will be a great time to buy though.
The risk of side effects from the vaccine is miniscule, approaching 0%.Walrus wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:13 pm It's going to be really unfortunate that employers are going to face massive lawsuits when employers realize their health was damaged by the vaccines. The problem is, there won't be enough money to pay out everyone. This could be the black swan that collapses everything.
Nostradumbass is out of time out?Walrus wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:13 pm It's going to be really unfortunate that employers are going to face massive lawsuits when employers realize their health was damaged by the vaccines. The problem is, there won't be enough money to pay out everyone. This could be the black swan that collapses everything.
Wonder how much of that decline was due to banks deciding spec houses were too risky to finance for the less finaicially strong builders?TraditionKU wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:07 pm heard an interesting dynamic to the housing situation this morning that i hadn’t heard before
pre-2008 the US was building something like 3mil new homes/year...after 2008 that number dropped to below 750,000 and has hovered around that level since, which caused a whole bunch of trained and qualified home builders to leave the industry. this could result in a housing shortage lasting close to 10 years
i’d imagine that, in general, lending institutions were trigger shy across the board to fund building projects post-2008BasketballJayhawk wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:16 pmWonder how much of that decline was due to banks deciding spec houses were too risky to finance for the less finaicially strong builders?TraditionKU wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:07 pm heard an interesting dynamic to the housing situation this morning that i hadn’t heard before
pre-2008 the US was building something like 3mil new homes/year...after 2008 that number dropped to below 750,000 and has hovered around that level since, which caused a whole bunch of trained and qualified home builders to leave the industry. this could result in a housing shortage lasting close to 10 years
We stopped doing spec projects for all but 3 of our big residential builders....and we are approaching being a 1billion dollar bank.
We still do a lot of presolds with our other builders. But no more specs. And no more allowing borrowers to be their own general contractor.
We had builders who would run over costs on 1 project (financed with us or somewhere else) and start using money from other deals to bridge the gap. Eventually when that goes bad it goes REALLY bad, because there isn't much collateral value in a half built house. Now we also have a guy who does construction inspections to make sure the "draws" on their line of credit is matching up with where they are in the project and what that money is supposed to be used for.
Pre 2008 banks were doing some wild ass shit. Or at least not paying attention well enough to catch it early enough.
i agree with the sentiment, but that would really only serve to give the thread creator more attention and make him feel special
it’ll help, but the shortage isn’t just going away
The shortage slips away if the bank owns 15% of houses after default.TraditionKU wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:51 pmit’ll help, but the shortage isn’t just going away
if you believe the premise that the shortage of builders is real, it’ll take years to build back to reasonable levels
where is that coming from?TDub wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:04 pmThe shortage slips away if the bank owns 15% of houses after default.TraditionKU wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:51 pmit’ll help, but the shortage isn’t just going away
if you believe the premise that the shortage of builders is real, it’ll take years to build back to reasonable levels
I wonder what the age demographics are for people in that field? Less and less young people are looking to be builders in my limited personal experience in RE in my area. That's likely to play a role in the raw number of actual builders moving forward (assuming similar trends in markets across the country).TraditionKU wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:51 pmit’ll help, but the shortage isn’t just going away
if you believe the premise that the shortage of builders is real, it’ll take years to build back to reasonable levels
that was another point that was made in the conversation this morning, that because there wasn’t the demand, there were fewer people also looking to get into the industryBasketballJayhawk wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:44 pmI wonder what the age demographics are for people in that field? Less and less young people are looking to be builders in my limited personal experience in RE in my area. That's likely to play a role in the raw number of actual builders moving forward (assuming similar trends in markets across the country).TraditionKU wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:51 pmit’ll help, but the shortage isn’t just going away
if you believe the premise that the shortage of builders is real, it’ll take years to build back to reasonable levels
Im looking for the quote. I read it a few days ago that up to 15% of homes were in danger of default when the programs tapered off. It may not have been a nationwide stat, howeverTraditionKU wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:30 pmwhere is that coming from?TDub wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:04 pmThe shortage slips away if the bank owns 15% of houses after default.TraditionKU wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:51 pm
it’ll help, but the shortage isn’t just going away
if you believe the premise that the shortage of builders is real, it’ll take years to build back to reasonable levels
just a quick search, and i see an estimate of half a million borrowers for whom the forbearance prevented foreclosure...that’s a far cry from 15%
i’m not necessarily disagreeing with you, i’m just curious
Makes sense. Also makes me wonder how many of the older demographic found better paying work that wasn't as physically demanding? And Are similar trend lines happening in plumbing/electrical/other trades?TraditionKU wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:51 pmthat was another point that was made in the conversation this morning, that because there wasn’t the demand, there were fewer people also looking to get into the industryBasketballJayhawk wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:44 pmI wonder what the age demographics are for people in that field? Less and less young people are looking to be builders in my limited personal experience in RE in my area. That's likely to play a role in the raw number of actual builders moving forward (assuming similar trends in markets across the country).TraditionKU wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:51 pm
it’ll help, but the shortage isn’t just going away
if you believe the premise that the shortage of builders is real, it’ll take years to build back to reasonable levels
Yes, but very rarely for better pay. Trades pay well. We've been over this before but there is a stigma attached to the trades that is seeded early in our achool systems.BasketballJayhawk wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 2:01 pmMakes sense. Also makes me wonder how many of the older demographic found better paying work that wasn't as physically demanding? And Are similar trend lines happening in plumbing/electrical/other trades?TraditionKU wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:51 pmthat was another point that was made in the conversation this morning, that because there wasn’t the demand, there were fewer people also looking to get into the industryBasketballJayhawk wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:44 pm
I wonder what the age demographics are for people in that field? Less and less young people are looking to be builders in my limited personal experience in RE in my area. That's likely to play a role in the raw number of actual builders moving forward (assuming similar trends in markets across the country).