COVID-19 numbers
Posted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:56 pm
I wonder if the US would ever release the suspected numbers. Many think there are 10x the actual infections out there, but without testing, we will never know.
Geezer wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:56 pm https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Good source and constantly updated.
This. But it's not really a thing of would they release the numbers, but more a question of could they. There is no way to guess how many people are infected that haven't been tested. In Bismarck here, they aren't testing unless you're actually experiencing symptoms or have come in direct contact with someone who has tested positive. Even then, the most severe symptoms get the test. If you've come in contact, and aren't showing symptoms, they won't even test you and just tell you to isolate for 7 days.
I think this has more to do with testing.zsn wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:26 pm https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Look at the shape of the US curve in the first graph compared to the rest. We're the only ones where the curve is tending left instead of maintaining the trajectory of curving right. In fact we were doing quite well until the first 12-13 days after the first 10 deaths.......then something (did not) happen(ed). Scroll down and look at the shape of NY, CA and WA curves. Scary!
Or, it's all a hoax
The graph I am talking about is the first one on the page - it's cumulative deaths plotted vs. time since 10th death. Testing got nothing to do with number of deaths...it's about as objective a number as one can find. The US death rate changed for the worse, while Japan and S. Korea got much better. Others are either staying the same or getting (slightly) better.PhDhawk wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:37 pmI think this has more to do with testing.zsn wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:26 pm https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Look at the shape of the US curve in the first graph compared to the rest. We're the only ones where the curve is tending left instead of maintaining the trajectory of curving right. In fact we were doing quite well until the first 12-13 days after the first 10 deaths.......then something (did not) happen(ed). Scroll down and look at the shape of NY, CA and WA curves. Scary!
Or, it's all a hoax
There weren't enough tests in those first 12 days, and then there was increased testing. I don't think that reflects the actual spread. I think our curve is probably the same, it's just we weren't testing, and then we were, while everyone else was testing the whole time.
ah, sorry, misread.zsn wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:44 pmThe graph I am talking about is the first one on the page - it's cumulative deaths plotted vs. time since 10th death. Testing got nothing to do with number of deaths...it's about as objective a number as one can find. The US death rate changed for the worse, while Japan and S. Korea got much better. Others are either staying the same or getting (slightly) better.PhDhawk wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:37 pmI think this has more to do with testing.zsn wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:26 pm https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Look at the shape of the US curve in the first graph compared to the rest. We're the only ones where the curve is tending left instead of maintaining the trajectory of curving right. In fact we were doing quite well until the first 12-13 days after the first 10 deaths.......then something (did not) happen(ed). Scroll down and look at the shape of NY, CA and WA curves. Scary!
Or, it's all a hoax
There weren't enough tests in those first 12 days, and then there was increased testing. I don't think that reflects the actual spread. I think our curve is probably the same, it's just we weren't testing, and then we were, while everyone else was testing the whole time.
That's only true if you believe that we have cataloged all deaths from the virus since spread began in January. And that's manifestly NOT the case.zsn wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:44 pmThe graph I am talking about is the first one on the page - it's cumulative deaths plotted vs. time since 10th death. Testing got nothing to do with number of deaths...it's about as objective a number as one can find. The US death rate changed for the worse, while Japan and S. Korea got much better. Others are either staying the same or getting (slightly) better.PhDhawk wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:37 pmI think this has more to do with testing.zsn wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:26 pm https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Look at the shape of the US curve in the first graph compared to the rest. We're the only ones where the curve is tending left instead of maintaining the trajectory of curving right. In fact we were doing quite well until the first 12-13 days after the first 10 deaths.......then something (did not) happen(ed). Scroll down and look at the shape of NY, CA and WA curves. Scary!
Or, it's all a hoax
There weren't enough tests in those first 12 days, and then there was increased testing. I don't think that reflects the actual spread. I think our curve is probably the same, it's just we weren't testing, and then we were, while everyone else was testing the whole time.