Kansas Crimson

Results only thread to maybe invite the outsiders in. No need for political discussion at this point.

Biden up 5-0 after Dixville Notch. 4 years ago, its result was Clinton 4, Trump 2, Johnson 1.

Down ballot results will also be interesting.

Supposedly a chance at a winner tonight.

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:54 am Results only thread to maybe invite the outsiders in. No need for political discussion at this point.

Biden up 5-0 after Dixville Notch. 4 years ago, its result was Clinton 4, Trump 2, Johnson 1.

Down ballot results will also be interesting.

Supposedly a chance at a winner tonight.

If Florida or Texas get penned into the Biden column, it's over tonight. Georgia and North Carolina have close, but not quite dispositive, effects.

Can we have a separate MICH/Lobs/illy meltdown thread? Also, I’m predicting TDub returns if Trumpy has any success today.


**originally mistyped TDub as PDub.

jfish26 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:23 am

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:54 am Results only thread to maybe invite the outsiders in. No need for political discussion at this point.

Biden up 5-0 after Dixville Notch. 4 years ago, its result was Clinton 4, Trump 2, Johnson 1.

Down ballot results will also be interesting.

Supposedly a chance at a winner tonight.

If Florida or Texas get penned into the Biden column, it's over tonight. Georgia and North Carolina have close, but not quite dispositive, effects.

From what I understand, Florida should not take several days like in years past and we could draw a lot of inferences about the rest of the country based on how Florida, particularly rural Florida, votes.

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:35 am

jfish26 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:23 am

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:54 am Results only thread to maybe invite the outsiders in. No need for political discussion at this point.

Biden up 5-0 after Dixville Notch. 4 years ago, its result was Clinton 4, Trump 2, Johnson 1.

Down ballot results will also be interesting.

Supposedly a chance at a winner tonight.

If Florida or Texas get penned into the Biden column, it's over tonight. Georgia and North Carolina have close, but not quite dispositive, effects.

From what I understand, Florida should not take several days like in years past and we could draw a lot of inferences about the rest of the country based on how Florida, particularly rural Florida, votes.

Right. Florida has been counting early votes for days. It's likely we'll know the direction of things tonight (which yes, if close, will not be resolved tonight).

It will also be an early bellwether for the accuracy of the polls. Biden closed +8 nationally, which statistically (even factoring in the electoral college math) would make him a lock.

The polls were off by three last time. If they're off by three in Biden's favor, he could go past 400. If they're off by three in Trump's favor, it might come down to Pennsylvania/Florida/Georgia.

jfish26 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:23 am

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:54 am Results only thread to maybe invite the outsiders in. No need for political discussion at this point.

Biden up 5-0 after Dixville Notch. 4 years ago, its result was Clinton 4, Trump 2, Johnson 1.

Down ballot results will also be interesting.

Supposedly a chance at a winner tonight.

If Florida or Texas get penned into the Biden column, it's over tonight. Georgia and North Carolina have close, but not quite dispositive, effects.

A combination of Biden getting AZ, NC, and being tied in MI at the end of the night, even without FL, GA, and TX, would seal the deal.

It's worth noting that the scenario you describe (but with MI as a Biden win) is actually on the unlucky end for Biden, from a statistical standpoint.

If each of Florida and Georgia is a tossup, it's easy enough to run the Punnett Square math.

And I don't think anyone really knows what Texas is. It raised my eyebrow this morning when Trump noted on Fox that "tremendous changes have been taking place the last three days." He was then asked how so. His first response was "We think we're going to win Texas very big."

That tells me they're holding death-warmed-over internal polling, and Trump is coping by wishcasting.

Texas is interesting and IMO, unknown. Polling errors tend to skew GOP because of past demographics and who will answer polls. 1.8 M newly registered voters with independents not as conservative this year. 54-percent strongly disapprove of Trump. But the governor and AG are so corrupt it will likely spill over to vote counting.

Sparko wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:37 am Texas is interesting and IMO, unknown. Polling errors tend to skew GOP because of past demographics and who will answer polls. 1.8 M newly registered voters with independents not as conservative this year. 54-percent strongly disapprove of Trump. But the governor and AG are so corrupt it will likely spill over to vote counting.

I do wonder if Texas polls skew a bit toward GOP for the same demographic reasons AZ polls do (among other things, who answers poll calls, and the effect of (on a broad basis) much larger Hispanic households, as compared with white households).

I know of no progressives who don’t screen calls here. Polling tends to be like the bear who found a good dumpster. Even still, though. Got to fight through the state govt.

A good link to poll closing times across the US.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ticleShare

Sherron totally burns Rose to tie it up.
He's been way better than RussRob.

Per CNN reporting:

States that will have most ballots counted today:

FL
GA
TX
NC
OH

Nov 4:

WI

Nov. 6:

MI
PA

Nov. 4 and beyond:

AZ

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:03 am Per CNN reporting:

States that will have most ballots counted today:

FL
GA
TX
NC
OH

Nov 4:

WI

Nov. 6:

MI
PA

Nov. 4 and beyond:

AZ

That's a big GOP yikes.

jfish26 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:45 am

Sparko wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:37 am Texas is interesting and IMO, unknown. Polling errors tend to skew GOP because of past demographics and who will answer polls. 1.8 M newly registered voters with independents not as conservative this year. 54-percent strongly disapprove of Trump. But the governor and AG are so corrupt it will likely spill over to vote counting.

I do wonder if Texas polls skew a bit toward GOP for the same demographic reasons AZ polls do (among other things, who answers poll calls, and the effect of (on a broad basis) much larger Hispanic households, as compared with white households).

That's been Wasserman's take (Cook report, predicted Trump in'16) - and the reason that despite the polls he thinks Texas is more in play than Ohio, and why AZ may be a bigger Biden win than the rust belt. I buy that.

If nothing else, you'd think Texas even being in play would be the death blow to Trumpism going forward. The party has no future if Texas isn't a given.

Looking good in Florida for Trump. I think he's going to win PA and Michigan as well.

Hearing reports that trump is building momentum in some of the key states. Will it be enough? Not sure, but it might be closer than many think.

Truly won’t know to start to know results until 6pm CT tonight. Exit polls and all that don’t mean that much.

NewtonHawk11 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:06 pm Hearing reports that trump is building momentum in some of the key states. Will it be enough? Not sure, but it might be closer than many think.

Truly won’t know to start to know results until 6pm CT tonight. Exit polls and all that don’t mean that much.

Do you have links to the reports? I still haven't turned my TV on (plenty of time for that), and my twitter feed is narrowly tailored to include almost no news, so I'm not in the loop w/ exit polls.

jfish26 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:16 am If nothing else, you'd think Texas even being in play would be the death blow to Trumpism going forward. The party has no future if Texas isn't a given.

The midterms were a good indication of where Texas is heading.